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You Are Here - 4

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In the first post of this series I mentioned the psychological confusion generated by YAH ("you are here") maps.

I don't know about other mammals, but one big factor that throws people off in YAH scenarios is the "Y" ... the "you" ... the human.

We can never understand where WE are unless WE know what WE are.

Dredd Blog has been criticized ad nauseum over the years for explaining that so long as we don't know what a human is, we will continue to be disoriented in the context of YAH.

Today, I will use the space program that has been ongoing for years and years to illustrate the point.

We landed on the moon on this date almost 50 years ago (July 20, 1969).

Only a few years ago we discovered that only 1% of our genetic material is human, and the other 99% of our genetic material is microbial.

Not only that, we also learned that the microbial cells in and on us keep us healthy and/or alive (see video and this).

Anyway, the space program was designed without our knowing the "Y" of "YAH."

So, how are we going to exist in space without 99% of ourselves?

Is that why our bones turn rubbery in space after awhile?

What microbes do we have to take with us, including backup systems, when we travel in space?

You ask yourself some similar questions now ... but watch the video and especially the Q&A following the lecture to give yourself ideas.

Dr. Bassler, in the video below, (watch it to find out some critical YAH information) explains that we have only very recently found out that the "Y" is not what we have though it was for a few thousand years (On The New Meaning of "Human", 2).
Got "Y" ?


The previous post in this series is here.

Dr. Bonnie Bassler lecture, with a follow-up question answer session:

25:00 the language of bacteria has a basic word, with "carbons" (carbon atoms) added on to that basic molecule so as to make additional "words" used by different species of bacteria.

29:30 E. carotovora releases antibodies that it is immune to, so as to eradicate competition that are not immune to those antibodies.

39:00 many, if not all, bacteria use a word known by all bacteria, when communicating with other species of bacteria different from their own species.

57:25 Q&A session ... why did we just find this out 400 years after microbes were discovered using the first microscopes? "hubris ... snobbery ... dogma that only higher species have language, etc."




Exposé on the Church Crutch of Euthanasia

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"We announce our candidacy for Preznit Sky Pilot"
Pontius Pilate and the other oids are at it again (The Elections of Pontius Pilots).

How soon we forget (Inside Job and/or Conspiracy?).

In the ongoing Olympics we call the election cycle, do you observe a struggle to see who can be the dumbest of dumb or dumber?

But, let's not lose sight of some world record campaigns of the past, which may surpass the current unconscious babble.

Much of it is coming from religious candidates, while other aspects of the cacophony comes from predator capitalists, and perhaps the remainder are from those much less likely to prevail: "the few, the sane, the also-rans."

For instance, a certain campaign of yore may be instructive:
"Another typical example of infatuation is the Unabomber Political Action Committee, a Boston-based group that is pushing the Unabomber for President. Chris Korda, a campaign worker and member of a related group called the Church of Euthanasia, is completely serious. For him, the Unabomber's appeal comes from his theoretically strict rumblings about mankind-as-pox. (The church's slogan is ''Save the Planet -- Kill Yourself.'')"
(They Call It Luddite Love, emphasis added). One has to wonder about the impact of that theatre of the absurd.

Evidently, supporting such an infamous person (Unabomber) for president can cause genetic morph into a maelstrom of ministration:
Chris Korda is under the ultimate deadline. As reverend of the Church of Euthanasia ... she's running an edgy, in-your-face campaign to stop human overpopulation before every redwood, owl, and butterfly fades into history.

With a droll theology that advocates suicide, abortion, cannibalism, and sodomy, Korda and her crew of young eco-hackers are waging war on the reproductive habits of the baby boomer generation - before the planet gets too messed up."
(You Are The Problem, emphasis added). They target the current world of youth, whom they evidently now see as a problem (They prey on youth).

That may be in whole or in part a projection from a type of Manson Complex:
Chris Korda (1962 - ) priest ... a great-nephew of film magnate Alexander Korda and the only son of Michael Korda, the novelist and editor-in-chief at Simon & Shuster in New York. Chris was a loner as a teenager, incarcerated for a while, and left New York for good when 14.

She settled in Boston, worked for a while as a female impersonator, and considered but did not complete a full transition to female.

In 1992 an alien intelligence, The Being, visited her in a dream and warned of the coming eco-catastrophe. She immediately changed her life and founded the Church of Euthanasia and anointed herself as Reverend. The Church advocates four pillars: suicide, abortion (the Church is not pro-choice – giving birth leads to excommunication), cannibalism (for those who are not vegan like Chris) and sodomy (any form of non-procreative sex).

... She has a girl-friend.
(A Gender Variance Who's Who, emphasis added; cf Wikipedia). Like father, like son, in the sense that the High Priest of Kill Yourself had a father who also had a girlfriend.

In addition to the little priest's mother.

Eventually, the little priest's dad divorced his wife, the little priest's mother, in favor of the girlfriend (Wikipedia, Michael Korda).

The father of the little priest was heavily into power, money, and sex, but evidently he was not so much into his kid, the little priest (Big-Shot Editor).

This is a fitting metaphor for civilization today, where the movers and shakers are into power and money, but are not so much into the welfare of the populace (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads, cf. The Common Good, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10).

Thus, we watch another election cycle that resembles a popularity contest in an insane asylum (NeoCon Planet: The Presidents of Kolob, NeoCon Planet: Maggie's Farm).

The one thing that their words deny, but their behavior evinces, is that for the most part, those running for preznit want to destroy this planet (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder).

The High Priest in Chief (The Dogma of The High Priest In Chief, 2, 3) is reproducing little high priests in chief it would seem (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death) - 4).

It is so bad that civilization is on euthanasia watch (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

That is not your fault (The Psychology of the Notion of Collective Guilt).

Sky Pilate ...



New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13

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More than just a saying
This series is about the contrast between what is called "normalcy bias" and its evil twin "worse case scenario bias."

It is also about the legitimate debate in the context of risk management.

There are old adages related to the issue, such as "better safe than sorry" and "the sky is falling."

In terms of global warming induced climate change, the issue involves what some call "alarmism" and its evil twin "false comfort" (see e.g. Which is worse alarmism or false comfort).

The bottom line is that there is a proper time for alarm, and a proper time for comfort, so in today's post let's ponder how these concepts should be applied when considering this announcement:
One of the nation's most recognizable names in climate science, Dr. James Hansen, released a new paper this week warning that even 2 degrees Celsius of global warming may be "highly dangerous" for humanity.

The paper, which will be published online in the European Geosciences Union journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion later this week, projects sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years.
(Former Top NASA Scientist Predicts Catastrophic Rise In Sea Levels).It should be noted that there were "16 co-authors" who are well known climate and/or cryosphere experts (e.g. Dr. Eric Rignot).

Dr. Hansen was quoted further in another newspaper:
The bottom line conclusion, he says, is that sea level rise is “the big impact of human made climate change.
(Washington Post, emphasis added).  Is this, then, a "better safe than sorry" scenario or a "the sky is falling" scenario?

Professional, mature risk management does not decide the case until after the evidence is acquired and analyzed, so reactions before that time are unprofessional and immature.

The only debate remaining in the sea level rise (SLR) context is: "when will x meters or feet of SLR happen?"

To scientists, it is not a matter of "if," rather, it is a matter of "when" and "how much."

The "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years" is in contrast to the latest IPCC projection of about 1 meter, about 3 feet, in the next 85 years.

Basically, Hansen, Rignot, and the other scientists involved in the paper are saying that SLR will happen sooner, and it will be a higher SLR than the IPCC report indicates.

That is not news, in the sense that many scientists over the years have criticized the IPCC habit of underestimating SLR, even though the IPCC has accurately projected other aspects of global warming induced climate change.

Hansen, et al. have published papers already in the scientific journals, which have estimates that are close to the upcoming paper:
The reasons have been explained by Hansen, Sato (2012) in an update, where, not having the use of Cryosat-2 satellite data, they wrote:
The increasing Greenland mass loss ... can be fit just as well by exponentially increasing annual mass loss, a behavior that Hansen (2005, 2007) argues could occur because of multiple amplifying feedbacks as an ice sheet begins to disintegrate. A 10-year doubling time would lead to 1 meter sea level rise by 2067 ... 2045 ... for 5-year doubling time and 2055 ... for a 7-year doubling time.
(Hansen, Ice Melt, emphasis added). The absence of Cryosat-2 data has now come to an end.
(The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 2). The new paper has incorporated the advantage of now having Cryosat-2 and other data, so an update of the "doubling" phenomenon is entirely appropriate.

The risks posed by SLR are greater than previously estimated, so the risk analysis is also in need of updating.

In the previous post of this series, I mentioned a social custom we practice in the context of risk management.

I had in mind our custom of having an insurance policy even when the risks are quite low:
A blogger, commenting on the prudence of having insurance, wrote: "[as] far as frequency you could figure that 0.317% of households ... 0.276% of housing units had a fire in the year."

Nevertheless, fire insurance is not only required for mortgages, it is also a custom of our culture to have fire insurance, and in fact even with those very low odds (less than 1%) that our own fire insurance protection will be used in the context of catastrophic circumstances, as a society we still practice "better safe than sorry" insurance ideology.
(New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 12). The same can be said for vehicle insurance.

The heart and core of risk management is that we need to know the risks well, or we won't ever have a chance of "managing" those risks well.

Regular readers know that Dredd Blog sees the risk in the same light that Hansen, et al. do ("sea level rise is the big impact of human made climate change").

That issue has even been discussed in recent posts (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4).

Note that the word "civilization" has several meanings, and that a particular and specific meaning is used in Dredd Blog posts.

The "global civilization" or "world civilization" composed of global trade, global commerce, and global economy is the main focus (e.g. What Do You Mean - World Civilization?, 2; Confusing "Civilization" With "Species", Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death).

We are not talking about extinction of species here, instead, we are focusing on extinction of world civilization in its current configuration.

The key infrastructure of this current world civilization is sea ports (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44, The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt).

I have described SLR as an invasion that the military cannot defend against (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion),

I have also said that SLR is non-discriminatory (The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First).

In closing today's post, let's reconsider the denialist sarcasm-propaganda such as "the sky is falling" mixed with the smear based "climate change alarmists" campaign.

And, let's do it by remembering that, historically, the question "which is worse alarmism or false comfort" (asked at the top of today's post), has been clearly answered:
"In other words, a society does not ever die 'from natural causes', but always dies from suicide or murder --- and nearly always from the former, as this chapter has shown." 
(A Study of History, by Arnold J. Toynbee). History teaches us that in every case civilizations of the past failed to heed the alarmed ones among them who warned of danger and demise.

Be alarmed, because as go the sea ports, so goes current world civilization (which depends on one thing: leave the fossil fuels in the ground or drown trying not to).

The previous post in this series is here.

Another One Bites The Dust

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"What goes up must come down ..."
I did not know which series this post fits into (A Tale of Coup Cities, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, Will The Military Become The Police?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10).

So, I made it a standalone post for now, but later on it may eventually become the first post in a new series detailing additional dynamics of the corruption of power (About Toxins Of Power).

What gave me pause was that the individual who is the subject of today's post has been featured in Dredd Blog posts in the past.

That is because he described "a coup" and "a policy coup" that took place in the U.S.eh? following 9/11 (e.g. A Tale of Coup Cities - 8).

At any rate, he has evidently joined the coup that he previously spoke of unfavorably.

The video at the bottom of the post presents the picture.

Commentary by other blogs detail some of the internet social media backlash (The Intercept: Wesley Clark wants WW II style interment camps, Mediaite: or re-education camps, Zero Hedge - same, Salon - same, TPM - same).

The real rub here comes because General Clark would have lawyers and politicians decide who was "radicalized" and "against the U.S." at a time when there are no valid legal definitions for those concepts (Rethinking Radicalization, PDF).

So, the general seems to have lost his marbles since being claimed by Blackstone (Our People).

Blackstone is one cog in the private empire's labyrinth of gears (Our Offices).

See you in the camps:
"The greatest reaction from government officials, who certainly know that disruption and upheaval are coming, is to spy on the citizens now as they prepare to triage them in detention camps in the future ..." (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 32)

"A new report by the U.S. Army War College talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the War College report.

The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S." (The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First).
 What if they were to conclude that the Dredd Blog post "Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States" is a radicalized anti-American manifesto?

Anyone still thinking "they wouldn't dare"?

Future internment camp general?



A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion

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A message for Petroleum Civilization
I. Introduction

The Hansen et al. paper arguing that a vaunted 2°C temperature rise is dangerous is now open for comment at Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, an open-access journal published by the European Geosciences Union (ACPD, "2°C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous", PDF).

Today, I will only address the sea level rise (SLR) aspects of the paper.

I am convinced that SLR is the prominent danger being created by the increase of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, and oceans, as a result of Petroleum Civilization's burning of fossil fuels (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death), 2, 3, 4).

I mentioned the Hansen et al. paper on Wednesday, not having read it yet, but I kept that post limited to "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years," and "sea level rise is the big impact of human made climate change" (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13).

Today, with that paper in hand I want to address those issues with quotes directly from the paper itself, rather than from journalists.

II. What Danger?

The title of the paper ("2°C global warming is highly dangerous") indicates that the 16 co-authors feel that the assumption that we can live with a 2°C temperature rise is a dangerous and erroneous assumption.

We are about halfway to a 2°C temperature rise already, and the dangers presented already are killing millions of people and thousands of species of life on Earth (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment).

Not to mention that we have already seriously damaged the Global Climate System, fresh water sources, farming soils, the oceans, and many other human habitat necessities.

Since the general, normalcy-biased press corps have not considered the serious dangers that SLR presents to current civilization, I have been doing so.

That is, I have been pointing out the dangers to the world's sea ports which an SLR of 1m / 3 ft. presents.

Since the world's ports are essential to current civilization many Dredd Blog posts have addressed the issue from many vantage points (e.g. Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3; The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion; Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44; Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4).

Those posts and others point out that Petroleum Civilization is based, in the main, on delivery of commodities, crude oil, coal, gas, foodstuffs, etc. via sea ports.

Sea ports were built at sea level decades ago, because that is where sea ports are built (at sea level).

When SLR takes place, those sea ports are thereby rendered below sea level.

Which presents very serious problems that, upon further analysis, are dangerous to current civilization.

And those are problems which threaten to convert current civilization into a civilization absent the sea trade essential to it (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

There is no realistic denial of that, instead, the resistance to comprehending it comes from pondering when it will happen (find "the law of when"here).

III. Some Arithmetic Concerning SLR

The paper indicates "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years," so it is a departure from the IPCC position of 3 ft in the next 85 years.

If we apply linear arithmetic to the paper, it means 5 ft. per decade (50 ÷ 10 = 5), which would mean 1m / 3 ft. SLR in 6 years from now, or the year 2021 (5/10 = 3/x; x=6).

In non-linear arithmetic, i.e. a "doubling" or "an acceleration" of the annual rate, the first 10 year SLR would be less than the second 10 year rate, and so forth.

In contrast, my SLR calculation model indicates a 1m / 3 ft. SLR by 2031, or 16 yrs. from now (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 5?).

IV. Surge SLR Is Historically Real

What both my SLR calculation model and the Hansen et al. model leave out is surges in SLR.

Scientists call them "pulses" rather than surges, and they add a number and letter to further identify them.

I have been considering "pulse 1C" of about 8k years ago, which resulted in a 1m / 3ft. SLR in a few years or less (see NASA GISShere and here).

The "pulse 1C" was not directly related to climate, but rather related to some of the dynamics that take place when ice sheets melt in a warming climate.

Sometimes as in the case of pulse 1C, the meltwaters are dammed up either down under the surface of the ice sheet, on top of the ice sheet, or around the edges of the ice sheet.

We are talking about meltwater that is still over land, i.e., meltwater that has not reached the sea yet.

When the obstruction eventually gives way, there is a surge in SLR that is unrelated to either the linear or the accelerating melt that is ongoing.

There is a surge in SLR, without there having been a surge or pulse in warming or in CO2 content.

The SLR in such a case is caused by a "dam" obstruction finally giving way, which allows the meltwater to then flow into the sea.

I have posted several times indicating that such obstructions currently take place on both the Greenland Ice Sheet and on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 45).,

V. Risk Management

We can't calculate, by models, exactly when those types of obstructions will give way to thereby allow dammed up water to then surge, pulse, and flow to the sea.

So, instead, it is a matter of dealing with chaotic happen-stance, and therefore utilizing "better safe than sorry" risk management as the way to go (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13).

VI. The Odds By The Numbers

It is instructive to remember that SLR catastrophe involves only a tiny percentage of the ice sheets melting or otherwise finding a way to the sea:
To spark our interest, and bind ourselves to a sober view of this phenomenon which is called "The Biggest Story in the World" (according to a worldwide circulation news source), first consider the following quote from the video below:
2:43 - "One meter [of SLR] would be a global catastrophic event, 3 meters would remap the world as we know it?"

2:50 - "Yes, absolutely."
(emphasis added). This allows us to focus our attention on 1m / 3ft. of SLR, because it would be "a global catastrophic event."

The delicacy of the issue can be seen ... by realizing that only 1.14% of the global ice volume needs to melt to get us there (3 ft ÷ 263.5 ft. = 0.011385 = 1.14%).

The overall invader needs to use only 1.14% of its forces to accomplish the invasion.
...
If a small portion of one glacier (the Totten Glacier) in East Antarctica melts, or otherwise slides into the sea, the same will happen:
"How little it will take can also easily be seen by a statement from a scientist who is studying those locations closely and regularly:
'One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven metres of global sea level.' [a lower estimate is "at least" 3.3 metres here]
(Dr. Rignot East Antarctica glaciers, cf. Totten Glacier Melting). The percentage of that one glacier which needs to melt to cause 3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR is: 1÷7 = 0.142857143 = 14.3%."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization). That is a slim margin, because the Totten Glacier is showing signs of decomposition (Nature).
...
The NEGIS is 16% of the entire GIS, JI is 8%, while KG& HG at ~2% each.

These four entities make up 28% of the total ice in the GIS.

The entire GIS represents 21.49 ft. of SLR (Fig. 2), so 28% of that is (21.49 × .28) 6.02 feet.

Which means that only half of that amount (14%) is needed to reach "3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR."
(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3). The threat to the infrastructure of current world civilization is far more imminent (assuming no nuclear war), than the extinction of the human race is.

VII. Conclusion

One can only hope that the clueless minions currently herded by Oil-Qaeda will suddenly freak out and get down to business, calling for a world wide effort never before considered.

An effort that I and others would gladly rejoice in performing ... putting our energy into whatever it takes to LEAVE THE CIVILIZATION POISONING FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND !!

I would work like a slave to help with that, after Oil-Qaeda is brought to justice.

Peak Sea Level

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"I have you by the lifeblood" - King Oilah Akbar IV
I. One Peak Leads To Another

In the finite world on the finite globe we call Earth, there is a peak of everything that is not part of a repeating cycle  (e.g. The Peak Of Sanity).

We call those things commodities.

Oil is the "lifeblood" of our civilization, as well as the "deathblood," thus it is a common oddity as well as a commodity (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death) - 4).

The peak of finite things is not a controversial subject amongst those who know arithmetic (2-2=0), but to the contrary, when the peak of availability of this or that commodity or common oddity will take place is generally controversial:
"The First Law of 'When': the more critical an issue is to the future of our civilization, the difficulty of determining when that critical issue will take effect tends to increase exponentially.

The Second Law of 'When': the greater the amount of time it takes for that critical issue to play out completely tends to exponentially diminish Civilization's grasp of that critical issue.

The Third Law of 'When': the more destructive the impact which that critical issue would have on civilization tends to exponentially increase the time when that critical event will be understood to have begun to take place."
(Quotes Page). It seems that gravity, curves space, and fear bends time, especially the time related to sea level rise (SLR).

II. A Most Controversial Peak

I took note of two papers, one of which came out last week, addressing the controversial issue of the time line of SLR, both past and present.

One was presented by Dr. James Hansen and a lot of co-authors (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

The other one was presented by 8 authors from the other side of the Atlantic, and then published in a journal (Nature, "Bipolar Seesaw Control on Last Interglacial Sea Level"; cf.Reporting Climate Science).

The two papers address, among other things, the issue of which ice sheet, Greenland or Antarctica, has and/or will contribute the most to SLR.

The older paper points out that in previous eras when ice sheets grew and expanded, then subsequent warming reversed it, the sequence of events was not always uniform.

Once sea level became lowest as a result of maximum ice sheet growth, the subsequent global warming sequence of events leading to ice sheet melt, was not the same sequence in all cases.

Ice sheets in the northern hemisphere would take the lead at times, but at other times the southern hemisphere would take the lead.

So, for SLR the bottom line is that it depends on what point on the graph we are in reference to, because one ice sheet will contribute the most in one era, but then the other will accelerate to take the lead (The Evolution of Models - 10).

III. We Are Here Now

We know that Greenland is leading at this time, because both continental ice sheets have been measured by Cryosat-2 and other satellites.

Their data are pointing out the scale and scope of current melt:
Measurements from ESA’s CryoSat mission have been used to map the height of the huge ice sheets that blanket Greenland and Antarctica and show how they are changing. New results reveal combined ice volume loss at an unprecedented rate of 500 cubic kilometres a year.
...
The resulting maps reveal that Greenland alone is reducing in volume by about 375 cubic kilometres a year.
...
The researchers say the ice sheets’ annual contribution to sea-level rise has doubled since 2009. [Table 1 type contribution - i.e. thermal sea level rise (additional) is not included in that doubling]

Glaciologist Angelika Humbert, another of the study’s authors, added, “Since 2009, the volume loss in Greenland has increased by a factor of about two and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet by a factor of three."
(What Do You Mean - World Civilization? - 2). We don't know how long that volume of loss will continue, nor exactly when the larger load will begin to be carried by Antarctica, but the load disparity is currently known:
Currently, the ice melt rate (500 km3) is based on volume of ice melt in Greenland (375 km3) and Antarctica (125 km3) which shows that Greenland is melting much faster."
(Will This Float Your Boat - 6). Greenland is the lead meltwater producer at this time, and will remain so for quite a while it would seem.

The main consideration IMO, is that there is plenty to do to grasp the here and now, because the dangers to us are here and now.

I don't fault the scientists for also considering ancient SLR, but more energy needs to go into developing a public conversation to counter the propaganda of Oil-Qaeda (The Private Empire's Social Media Hit Squads).

They have spread the falsehood that global warming is a hoax when it fact it is a great danger.

IV. Conclusion

Let's keep our eyes and ears open, because Peak Sea Level is headed our way, and it will not be a pretty sight, all things considered (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13).

In the Fog of The Presstitutes - 4

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ad nauseum
I. Background

Like other Dredd Blog Series, this series is an exposé of the coverage cover-up of the news subject which the Guardian calls "The Biggest Story In The World."

In today's post, I want to show one way in which that cover-up is taking place by the mainstream media (MSM), which I call McTell News.

That cover-up issue is "how much attention is McTell News paying" or to the contrary, "how much is Oil-Qaeda paying McTell News not to pay attention" to The Biggest Story In The World?

II. Mainstream News History

Since about the time of WW I, both the business world and government have used McTell News to deceive the public on various and sundry matters (The Deceit Business, Mocking America, 2, 3, 4).

The media structure is part of a trinity construct (MOMCOM: A Mean Welfare Queen) ultimately controlled and/or influenced by a private empire (MOMCOM: The Private Parts) which I sometimes call the epigovernment (Epigovernment: The New Model).

I mention this, because The Biggest Story In The World is contrary to their interests, and is therefore the reason for their cover-up.

This will be abundantly shown below.

III. The Non-coverage Cover-Up

A. Data Source and Formula

The venerable Media Matters folks do a very fine job of keeping an eye on McTell News, so today I will use their data.

I will use their data in the following formula: dy * hd * mh = my
where:

dy = days in a year (365.25)
hd = hours in a day (24)
mh = minutes in an hour (60)
my = total minutes in a year (525,960)

hence: 365.25 * 24 * 60 = 525,960
B. The Coverage Cover-Up Data

Next, let's review the total minutes of coverage of The Biggest Story In The World for each of the last six years (2009-2014) by the McTell News brands ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX.

The combined figures are:
format is year - minutes:

2009 - 205
2010 - 48
2011 - 47
2012 - 67
2013 - 129
2014 - 154
=========
6 yrs. - 650 min.
Total coverage, in minutes, in all of the last 6 years combined, by all 4 of those McTell News entities (ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX) is 650 minutes to cover The Biggest Story In The World (Media Matters, Jan. 2015).

C. The Percent of Total Minutes

In Section III(A), above, I calculated that in each year there were 525,960 minutes available to cover The Biggest Story In The World.

The total amount of minutes available to McTell News in those 6 years is: 525,960 * 6 = 3,155,760 minutes.

We can calculate the percentage of total minutes available to cover The Biggest Story In The World compared to how many minutes McTell News used to cover The Biggest Story In The World:
650 minutes ÷ 3,155,760 minutes = 0.000205973
0.000205973 * 100 = 0.021%
The total percent of available time they used is two hundreths of one percent.

Not even one percent of the total minutes available to them for The Biggest Story In The World was used to cover it.

IV. The Propaganda Aspects of The Cover-Up

A. The Big Picture

Let's remember that The Biggest Story In The World is that burning fossil fuels causes global warming induced climate change.

Which includes all that it entails, such as sea level rise, is a threat.

A threat not only to civilization, but also to all of the Earth's biota (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

Let's remember that The Biggest Story In The World is about the Sixth Mass Extinction, now under way, because of the use of poison fossil fuels.

Those poisons are controlled, owned, and/or operated by Oil-Qaeda.

B. Deliberate Deceit by Oil-Qaeda

The Union of Concerned Scientists recently pointed out:
"Internal fossil fuel industry memos reveal decades of disinformation — a deliberate campaign to deceive the public that continues even today.

For nearly three decades, many of the world's largest fossil fuel companies have knowingly worked to deceive the public about the realities and risks of climate change.

Their deceptive tactics are now highlighted in this set of seven "deception dossiers"—collections of internal company and trade association documents that have either been leaked to the public, come to light through lawsuits, or been disclosed through Freedom of Information (FOIA) requests.

Each collection provides an illuminating inside look at this coordinated campaign of deception, an effort underwritten by ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Peabody Energy, and other members of the fossil fuel industry."
(The Criminally Insane Epoch Arises - 4). The oil industry, Oil-Qaeda, does not care about the millions of lives they are destroying and/or damaging.

Thus, they are guilty of depraved-heart murder (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder).

The McTell News is also guilty, since they are also instrumental in the propaganda and cover-up (Media Matters: "How Media Has Helped Advance Big Oil's Climate Deception Campaign").

V. Conclusion

The public is being kept unaware of the colossal failure of the private empire and government.

Their (the 1%) assumptions about themselves, and their assumptions about us (the 99%), were and are wrong.

They believed that it was and still is their place to tell us what to wear, think, eat, and do:
THE conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society.

Our invisible governors are, in many cases, unaware of the identity of their fellow members in the inner cabinet.

They govern us by their qualities of natural leadership, their ability to supply needed ideas and by their key position in the social structure. Whatever attitude one chooses to take toward this condition, it remains a fact that in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons— a trifling fraction of our hundred and twenty [now 320] million — who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind, who harness old social forces and contrive new ways to bind and guide the world.
...
It is the purpose of this book to explain the structure of the mechanism which controls the public mind, and to tell how it is manipulated by the special pleader who seeks to create public acceptance for a particular idea or commodity. It will attempt at the same time to find the due place in the modern democratic scheme for this new propaganda and to suggest its gradually evolving code of ethics and practice.
(A Closer Look At MOMCOM's DNA - 4, quoting Propaganda). To them, we are the hoi polloi which they charitably put up with, as they build a glorious world for all to behold.

They are now full of denial and deceit, because they have brought civilization to the brink, and have no clue now about how to do anything truly remedial about it.

Thus, they are very desperate and dangerous now (Civilization Is Now On Suicide Watch, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

The previous post in this series is here.

"People turn the TV on, it looks just like a window, yeah" - lyrics here



Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 11

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Where did America go?
I started this series as a blogger observing ongoing cultural dynamics, somewhat in the nature of a meme complex.

I was contemplating racist events which, in my clueless mind, were quietly flowing under the surface of society, ruffling feathers but not too much more.

It was an academic exercise to study things "down under the hood" (Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 3).

I had no expectation whatsoever that the engine down under the hood would jump out of the engine well, and go through the hood, to explode onto the streets of America.

But it surely has, especially since I started this series well before even the infamous Ferguson shooting took place to start the carnage.

Our culture, like me, was totally unaware of the degree to which the subject matter I selected was actually spot on, prescient, and ready to explode into the public eye.

Now, a year and a quarter later, we are going on two thousand Americans who have been gunned down by a police force composed, to a frightful degree, of seemingly unstable minds (The Counted).

Please, let me repeat what I wrote in the previous post of this series, even though it is a bit redundant:
As I wrote in the previous post:
I began this series, on April 28, 2014.

Like you of course, at that time I had no idea that the Ferguson phenomenon would begin some months later on August 9, 2014.

In fact, by the time of the Ferguson phenomenon, I had already posted about half of the posts now contained in this series (Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
(Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 9). The many police killings of unarmed black men brought out one type of criticism of symbolic racism, and now the mass-murder in South Carolina has brought out another type of criticism.
(Symbolic Racism: A Look At The Science - 10). So, after scratching my head and wondering what was going on, I remembered another Dredd Blog series.

Upon reflection of that series, I am convinced that Radley Balko was spot on and prescient in his book Rise of the Warrior Cop (Will The Military Become The Police? - 4).
The previous post in this series is here.




Security

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"Where are you Luke, I am your father. I must kill you."

Father Change Jingles In My Pocket
by Dredd

Only one thing
has changed father.

You are dead,
so,
no more
rape and murder for you.

We are still here,
still true,
only older.

But never as old
as you were
born to be.

Cut short by your
Own life.

Our old
will
become younger.

When
the stars shine
once again.







Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7

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Fig. 1  Axis shift induced sea level rise
This series is about some seemingly science fiction aspects of global warming induced climate change.

Warming climate changes that cause polar ice sheets to melt, to weaken, and to shift gravity.

Today, I want to talk about an effect that will impact two areas of the globe with sea level rise (SLR), focusing on one such area called "the United States of America" or USeh?:
Polar ice sheets are not located symmetrically on Earth’s poles. Therefore, in light of their huge mass, Earth’s axis of rotation changes as they grow or shrink.Jerry Mitrovica has calculated that if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet [WAIS] melted in its entirety, the southern pole of Earth’s axis would move about half a mile toward the tip of South America. This change alone would raise sea level about 4 feet in two roughly circular regions, one in the Indian Ocean and the other centered on the US. This calculation demonstrates that movement, or wandering, of the poles is a substantial effect. It also demonstrates another way that changes in sea level are highly variable around the globe. Mitrovica takes polar wandering into account when inferring the relationship between changes in local sea level since the Pliocene observed at Pliomax sites and global average sea level change.
(Axis Upheaval, emphasis added; cf. Fig. 1& video below). As most people who concern themselves with SLR know, the WAIS is melting faster than East Antarctica is.
Fig. 2 Potential SLR with source locations

This 1.22 m / 4 ft SLR, which Dr. Mitrovica identifies (see Fig 1), would not be the result of the meltwater coming from the WAIS.

If you notice Fig. 2, SLR from WAIS meltwater would be 26.44 feet.

Thus, the extra 4 ft. from the axis shift is superfluous, because substantial catastrophe takes place at about 1m / 3ft of SLR (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

But, what it does serve to illustrate is that there are more forces associated with melting ice sheets than meltwater and icebergs alone.

Fig. 3 Who needs 4ft more of SLR?
There are pressures and forces that IPCC and other SLR modelling software does not take into consideration, even though those forces are dynamic and active each day, like the melting ice caps and rising seas are.

They are all linked together, acting as synchronized global phenomena, with a surprising percentage added onto meltwater and iceberg SLR impacts.

A previous post details what is shown in Fig. 3 in the Chesapeake Bay area, where "at least 13 islands" are already submerged (Will This Float Your Boat - 10).

The 4ft. axis shift (Fig. 1) is (4 ÷ 26.44 = 0.15128593) ~15% as much SLR as the entire melted ice sheet engenders ( 0.15128593 * 100 = 15.13%).

That 15% is not caused by additional meltwater entering the sea, rather, it is caused by a "bulge" (gravity, centripetal force, etc.) explained in the video below.

It would seem to me that this means there may be an additional ~15% SLR impact at any given time which we can add to meltwater or iceberg SLR calculations.

That is because this phenomenon is happening all the time (as the ice almost imperceptibly melts, the axis location almost imperceptibly moves causing the SLR bulge to move too).

The location shown in Fig. 1 is its final quantity of SLR and final destination, after all the WAIS melts.

But, as it melts from 25% to 50%, then on to 100%, the bulge effect is constantly moving in the ocean, from where it is now to where it will eventually end up.

There are additional forces associated with the ice sheet melt and disintegration, such as sub-glacial land mass uprising as the ice sheet, which now suppresses it downward, gets lighter and lighter (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

We have even witnessed recently, with our own eyes, a volcanic eruption as a result of a glacier in Iceland melting to such a degree that it could no longer suppress the magma below the bedrock the sheet rested on, because it became too thin (e.g. Global Warming & Volcanic Eruptions).

The melting in Greenland, and other locations in Antarctica, will change, accelerate, or otherwise impact upon the bulge locations, depending on which melts first and/or melts most.

That we are consistently having "the warmest year" each year now, means that there will be ongoing increased impact year by year.

Increased fossil fuel use also increases the ice melt on the warming globe.

The previous post in this series is here.

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity / axis bulge SLR issues we don't hear about often:



Sea Level Fall: The Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise?

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Fig. 1Climate Change and Sea Level
I. Background

Regular readers know that I have been putting a lot of research and writing into the subject of sea level rise (SLR) this year.

That is not to imply that I haven't written anything at all about SLR in years past (e.g. Will This Float Your Boat?2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; May 2011 -  May 2015).

What I have not focused on is sea level fall (SLF).

While researching the issue, while developing software to calculate future SLR, and while urging more attention to SLR, I just had an epiphany today.

I seems to be science fiction at first blush, but the epiphany is this: regarding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, unless we have had an SLF, we cannot yet have had an SLR.

That is, unless the science team that I wrote about on Friday has presented an invalid hypothesis (Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7).

II. The Issue of Gravity Loss @ Greenland & Antarctica

Take a careful look at Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, as well as the posts they link to, because they show that both SLF and SLR are one of the results of melting ice sheets.
Fig. 2Axis Upheaval

That is, Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 show a fall in sea level around both Greenland and Antarctica as a result of the loss of gravity caused by the loss of ice mass on those two ice sheets.

And of all things, like I wrote about in Friday's post, quoting the science team that works on this physics oriented aspect of SLR / SLF, when the ice sheet of West Antarctica (WAIS) melts, the resulting SLR of 4 ft. will manifest at, of all places, the coasts of the United States!

Not only that, the same thing happens to the U.S. when the ice sheet at Greenland melts (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3).

Double whammy!

III. The Gravamen of the Situation

We must with all dispatch determine if the science in the hypothesis of Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica et al. is correct (see video below).

We must determine if the SLF around Greenland and Antarctica can be detected, and if not, why not.

Fig. 3Alaska SLF
GRACE, the satellite, has already shown that there is detectable gravity loss in the WAIS.

There is SLF around Alaska where glaciers along with their gravity have vanished into history (Southern Alaskan Sea Level Fall).

The ice shelf floating on the ocean around Antarctica may be a deterrent to detecting SLF there, but there are open water areas around Greenland where that is not the case (e.g. Baffin Bay).

Check it out dear scientists and/or readers.

IV. The Potential Consequence of Not Knowing

There would be no loss of gravity if all the meltwater was going into the huge canyons and river systems beneath both Greenland and Antarctica (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise).

Which means that at any time whatever is damming the meltwater, whatever is preventing it from reaching the sea, is keeping the gravity there above the land (water has mass, ergo gravity).

Which could set up a "pulse 1C" type of event.

A surge (or "pulse") in this case is a sudden release of meltwater when an obstruction gives way letting all the gravity and water flow into the sea away from the land:
However, meltwater pulse 1C (8,200-7,600 years ago) left traces at numerous locations in the United States, northwestern Europe, and China. It occurred soon after the 8200 year cold event, which resulted from the final catastrophic drainage of glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway around 8400 years ago. The torrent of around 100,000 cubic kilometers unleashed within a few years or less amounted to barely a meter rise in global sea level, if evenly spread across the world's oceans (note 1). Yet the stratigraphic record preserves vestiges of this relatively minor pulse.
(The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise, cf. Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 45). SLF is the hidden gorilla in the SLR room, and it should be studied forthwith.

V. Conclusion

Somebody has to do it.

In the next few days or so I am upgrading my SLR calculation software to also deal, in some way, with the concept of gravity induced SLF(unless comments by regular readers have valid contra information).

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity / axis bulge SLR issues we don't hear about often enough:

05:00 ... an ice sheet has mass ... it has an effect on the sea water around it ...
18:15 ... if glaciers melt in Alaska sea around it will drop ...
19:15 ... unevenness of SLF / SLF informs what ice is melting where ...



Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5

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RMS Titanic hits Greenland iceberg
I. Background

The subtitle to today's post is "Karma may be made out of water& gravity."

In this series I have been drawing attention to the vessels of Petroleum Civilization.

Petroleum Civilization is the sub-civilization within the overarching Industrial Civilization which is said to have begun circa 1750 (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4).

That is being done in the context of the world's sea ports, through which pass 95% of import / export equipment, goods, commodities, food, fuel, and the like.

In other words, all of the things which current civilization depends on for international sustenance:
"By volume, more than 95 percent of U.S. international trade moves through the nation's ports and harbors, with about 50 percent of these goods being hazardous materials."
(Will This Float Your Boat - 10, quoting NOAA Ports). Without ports there is no more civilization as we have known it (IMO: "Maritime transport is essential to the world’s economy as over 90% of the world’s trade is carried by sea ...").

II. What Will SLR and SLF do?

The focus of the series is the weakness of sea ports, so, initially I focused on their weakness to sea level rise (SLR).

Today, I will add an additional discussion about sea port weakness to sea level fall (SLF).

I will also add the inexorable problem facing public works departments and port authorities.

That problem is the fact that both SLR and SLF produce different SLR / SLF at various locations around the globe.

Thus, the rising at one place will be a falling at another place.

Not only that, those varying sea levels will change constantly, going up or down, as ice sheets continue to melt.

Which means the problem will not go away simply by building a new port (Will This Float Your Boat - 9).

III. What Caused Such A Wacky Science Fictionish Apocalypse?

Many entities engineered Industrial Civilization, however, Oil-Qaeda engineered Petroleum Civilization (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment).

The result is a civilization that burns all manner of fossil fuels, a civilization that is addicted to those fuels like a heroin drug addict, and a civilization that thereby causes the global warming of the Earth.

Global warming has damaged the global climate system, causing among other things, ice sheets to melt.

The ongoing gravity impact when ice sheet meltwater flows into the sea, or when chunks of the ice sheet calve into the sea, has an impact on local sea level near the ice sheet, as well as on remote sea level way over the horizon.

Normally, the ice sheet creates, in effect, what is a perpetual high tide around the land mass upon which the ice sheet rests.

When the ice sheet loses its mass to the surrounding sea, it also loses the high tide sea level that surrounded it, because the loss of the power of its gravity goes away along with the loss of its ice mass to the sea.

A low tide sea level then becomes the new normal sea level around it.

The details are in two recent Dredd Blog posts (Sea Level Fall: The Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise?, Is A New Age Of Pressure Upon Us? - 7).

Those posts, along with the video, indicate that the sea levels of the world are now in flux, going up here, but going down there, all at the same time all around the world.

It is an engineering nightmare for any engineers who would build new ports to replace the current doomed ports.

IV. Existing Ports Are Dinosaurs

Most ports are many years old, some many centuries old, all built at the sea level of their time (which had not changed much at all until 1750 on, until our time).

All of those port sea levels are going to increasingly change one way or another in our time, except for a very few that will not be impacted in this crazy ice sheet melt scenario,

The amount of up, down, or very rarely unchanged, will be "determined" by individualized local political bodies in some cases.

Some of them will inexplicably deny the reality floating around their neighborhoods, as some already have (Social Dementia Causes Heated Misunderestimations - 2, Inhofe's One Man Troofiness Crusade).

But, the facts are that the overwhelming majority of ports are going to drown or dry up, as either SLR or SLF impacts their sea port.

V. Conclusion

I plan to monitor the cacophony that evolves following President Obama's "there is such a thing as too late," which he expressed as he began a process of diminishing GHG emissions in the U.S.

One can only wonder if he realizes that the United States is targeted by both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets in this death spiral process (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3)?

He does not seem to be fully aware of what is going on, because he assisted Oil-Qaeda to drill for more fossil fuels in the very dangerous clathrate and methane hydrate infested Arctic Ocean area (Barry & Oil-Qaeda vs Arctic Wilderness, 2).

Doing so this late in the game is a murderous endeavor (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder).

The previous post in this series is here.

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity of the situation which we don't hear about often enough:

05:00 ... an ice sheet has mass and gravity, so it has a gravitational effect on the sea water around it.

18:15 ... if glaciers melt in Alaska, sea level around Alaska will drop.

14:20 ... the scientific literature points out that sea level does not rise nor fall the same all around the globe (scientists have called it "the European problem"). 

19:15 ... analysing unevenness of SLR / SLF informs which ice sheet is melting (e.g. in Greenland or in Antarctica).



Peak Sea Level - 2

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Fig. 1Sea ports of Iceland
According to the graphics and information provided by Professor Mitrovica of Harvard, all of the sea ports in Iceland, shown in Fig. 1, will go dry (see video below).

The same can be said of all the ports in Greenland (Fig. 2).

Not to mention that all of the sea ports in Australia will experience different levels of rise (N. Australia) or fall (S. Australia), or stay at the same level (Mid Australia), depending on their distance from Antarctica (compare Fig. 4 with Fig. 5).

I mention the ports of Iceland and Greenland, not because they are world scale ports
 
Fig. 2Sea ports of Greenland
now, but because of the plans to build world scale ports in that area.

Navy Rear Admiral Titley revealed that he is aware of plans to build a world class port ("a new Singapore") in the area because in a few years the Arctic sea ice will be substantially gone during the summer, and thus the once-fabled Northwest Passage will be open for sea travel (Has The Navy Fallen, Iceland Building Arctic Port).

Why that is a big deal, he goes on to explain, is because shipping companies can save a lot of time and money by using the Arctic route instead of the Panama Canal route.

Indeed he was correct, because plans for sea ports have been made:
This point was stressed by Professor Qi Shaobin of Dalian Maritime University in China. Opening up the Arctic "will change the market pattern of the global shipping industry because it will shorten the maritime distance significantly among the Chinese, European, and American markets," he told Chinese state media last week.

Fig. 3Sea Level Fall  Rise @ Greenland
And shipping figures certainly look encouraging. Russian authorities said last week they had already granted permission for more than 370 ships to sail the route this year. In 2012, only 46 ships sailed the entire length of the passage from Europe to Asia, while in 2010 only 4 vessels made the voyage.

In the wake of these figures, several proposals have been announced to take advantage of the expected expansion in Arctic shipping. Iceland is considering plans, backed by German entrepreneurs, to build a major port on its northeastern shores. Similarly, Stornoway Port Authority in Scotland said last month that it was considering building a special port for Arctic ships so they could refuel and discharge cargoes into smaller vessels for onward shipment to Rotterdam, Le Havre, Liverpool, or London. In addition, Valentin Davydants, captain of Russia's Atomflot fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers, has estimated that 15 million metric tons of cargo will use the full Northern Sea Route by 2021.

It sounds impressive until you realize that 929 million metric tons of cargo were shipped through the Suez Canal by 18,000 vessels in 2011. By that standard, the Northern Sea Route has still got a long way to go in transforming world shipping.

And other issues affect the attractiveness of sailing in Arctic waters. The seas around the North Pole may be losing their summer ice cover, but there is still the ever-present danger of icebergs and drifting slabs of pack ice.
(Climate Change Is Opening the Door to Arctic Shipping, emphasis added). These plans have evidently been made without consulting Professor Mitrovica who says the sea level around Greenland and Iceland will drop as the ice sheets melt.

Fig. 4  Sea ports of Australia
It would seem that the drop in sea level in that area would have an impact on those plans wouldn't it?!

Those ports, and the ocean around Greenland, have already experienced Peak Sea Level, and are now in decline, now falling, because the gravity of the ice sheet weakens as its ice melts and/or calves into the sea.

Australia has a similar but more complex problem.

Its sea ports are at various distances from Antarctica, and it is so large that it looks to have sea ports that experience lower sea levels in its southern tip, but maybe higher sea levels at its northern tip (Fig. 4, Fig. 5).

I don't have to tell you that this complicates the planning of public works and port authority departments of governments.

Nor do I have to tell you that it complicates the work of architects and marine engineers who are working on some of the projects mentioned above.

Fig. 5 Sea level fall / rise Antarctica (see video)
In fact, I probably do not have to tell you that presently it makes that type of professional task an impossibility, for at least two reasons.

One reason is the politics science of "is sea level rising or falling" that will be played out in countries that have powerful climate change deniers in their governments (e.g. the U.S.A. and Australia).

The other problem, of the two I mention today, is that even the scientist community is not yet coordinated on the papers of Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica (see video below) nor his Team (The Mitrovica Group).

When I took a look at the recent paper of Dr. James Hansen et al. I found no references to sea level fall (SLF), nor any mention of the concepts or papers of Dr. Mitrovica, nor his group (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion).

Until there is a meaningful consensus among scientists concerning the Mitrovica hypotheses, which he says are settled science, then engineers and other public works professionals cannot commit to major multi-billion dollar projects that take years or decades to accomplish (The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44, Will This Float Your Boat - 10).

Especially when the sea level will continue to be a moving target while they are building sea ports, and afterwards.

They may be, right now, going full steam ahead on many sea port projects totally unaware or totally unconvinced of the future of world sea ports (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).

The previous post in this series is here.

Professor Jerry X. Mitrovica on the gravity / axis bulge SLR / SLF issues we don't hear about often:



The Methane Hydrate / Clathrate Controversy

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Methane Hydrate / Clathrate
I. Background

Observers of the warming oceans have considered many impacts which that warming will have.

On one issue, their are two camps, one saying hydrates will substantially contribute to human extinction, and the other saying it will not.

In other words, the verbal battle lines are well defined.

However, we have to look closer if we want to understand the issues.

So let's take a look.

I am not ready to conclude in this post, rather, I am only laying the issue out on the table for consideration at this time.

II. Basic Views of the Two Camps

A. The Clathrate Catastrophe Camp

The Nature Bats Last blog sets forth the near term human extinction (NTHE) position:
By 15 December 2013, methane bubbling up from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean had sufficient force to prevent sea ice from forming in the area. Nearly two years after his initial, oft-disparaged analysis, Malcolm Light concluded on 22 December 2013, “we have passed the methane hydrate tipping point and are now accelerating into extinction as the methane hydrate ‘Clathrate Gun’ has begun firing volleys of methane into the Arctic atmosphere.” According to Light’s analysis in late 2013, the temperature of Earth’s atmosphere will resemble that of Venus before 2100.
(Nature Bats Last). The "clathrate gun" reference is sometimes called a hypothesis (Clathrate Gun Hypothesis).

B. The "Nothing To See Here, Move Along Folks" Camp 

This camp has some formidable members too, who plainly say that the other camp is a bit over the top:
News stories and Web postings have raised concerns that climate warming will release large volumes of methane from gas hydrates, kicking off a chain reaction of warming and methane releases. But recent research indicates that most of the world’s gas hydrate deposits should remain stable for the next few thousand years. Of the gas hydrates likely to become unstable, few are likely to release methane that could reach the atmosphere and intensify climate warming.
(USGS: Why a Methane Catastrophe Is Unlikely). Ok, we see that distinct debate lines, on a very important subject, have been drawn.

III. The Admitted Unknowns

A. How Much

The USGS indicates that there are no tools with which to determine which source current atmospheric methane comes from:
The atmospheric concentration of methane, like that of carbon dioxide, has increased since the onset of the Industrial Revolution (fig. 5). Methane in the atmosphere comes from many sources, including wetlands, rice cultivation, termites, cows and other ruminants, forest fires, and fossil fuel production (fig. 6). Some researchers have estimated that up to 2 percent of atmospheric methane may originate with dissociation of global gas hydrates. Currently, scientists do not have a tool to say with certainty how much, or if any, atmospheric methane comes from hydrates.
(USGS: Gas Hydrates and Climate Warming, emphasis added). Of the "2 percent" of atmospheric methane in the air we breathe, it is not known how much of it comes from methane hydrates that have broken down and released their caged methane.

B. Lack of Research and Data?

A lot of attention is being paid to the matter, however, some say the science has not yet matured:
In the field of methane emission research today, the Arctic is one of the most important regions worldwide. It is believed that methane occurs there both in the form of gas hydrate in the sea and as free gas trapped in the deep-frozen permafrost. Methane deposits in permafrost and hydrates are considered to be very sensitive in the expansive shallow-shelf regions, because with the relatively low pressures it would only take a small temperature change to release large amounts of methane. In addition, new methane is continuously being produced because the Arctic regions are rich in organic material that is decomposed by microbes in the sediment. The activity of these microbes and thus the biological release rates of methane are also stimulated by increases in temperature. Hence methane emissions in the Arctic have multiple sources. International scientific consortia are now being established involving researchers from various disciplines – chemists, biologists, geologists, geophysicists, meteorologists – which are intensively addressing this problem. No one can yet say with certainty how the methane release in the Arctic will develop with global warming, either in the ocean or on the land. This research is still in its in­fancy.
(World Ocean Review, p. 2, emphasis added). How such an important issue leaves scientists in the dark because of methane clathrate research immaturity is troubling.

C. Jury Still Out?

One good place to observe the dynamic back and forth is a Guardian piece:
Can scientists overcome huge uncertainties to pin down how close, or far, we might be to a tipping point?

About a week ago, climate scientist Michael Tobis wrote a critique of my 'Seven facts about the Arctic methane time bomb' following a twitter exchange with him and Chris Colose, author of an article at Skeptical Science arguing that the core scenario of a new Nature paper by Gail Whiteman et. al on the economic costs of Arctic climate change is extremely unlikely.

Much of this debate kicked off because the said Nature paper advances a hypothetical scenario for an abrupt Arctic methane release over either a decade or several decades of about 50 gigatonnes (Gt), and argues specifically that such a scenario is "likely." My own attempt to understand the literature convinced me that the scenario should be viewed as a serious possibility.

Tobis on the other hand is the latest amongst several scientists offering scathing criticisms of that scenario, which in his own words is "as close to impossible as anything in earth science; actual geophysics refutes it."

He begins with my first point, 1. The 50 Gigatonne decadal methane pulse scenario was posited by four Arctic specialists, and is considered plausible by Met Office scientists.

Tobis writes that the Review of Geophysics paper I cite says
"Arctic thawing may release in excess of 50 GT of C [Carbon], a very serious matter... But Ahmed refers to the paper in support of a very different assertion, that 50 GT of methane would be released... But the paper to which he points says nothing of the sort. I conclude that he doesn't really know what he is talking about. Specifically he has already shown that he is confused about the distinction between methane releases and CO2 releases."
However, the carbon release scenarios from permafrost explored by the paper include both methane and carbon. Here's what the paper says:
"The most important determinant of whether release of frozen carbon happens as CO2 or CH4 [methane] is whether decomposition proceeds aerobically or anaerobically... In anaerobic conditions, a greater proportion of soil organic carbon decomposition is released as CH4, although not all of it necessarily reaches the atmosphere."
Following this paragraph, the paper cites several scenarios for large-scale releases from permafrost carbon, including the 50-100 Gt carbon release I mentioned.
(Why The Jury's Still Out). The jury is out for some people, but not out for others it would seem.

IV. Some Other Scientists Speak Out Boldly

An expert on the Siberian Arctic methane hydrate scenario has published some papers indicating that a serious condition exists:
Extremely high concentrations of methane (up to 8 ppm) in the atmospheric layer above the sea surface along with anomalously high concentrations of dissolved methane in the water column (up to 560 nM, or 12000% of super saturation), registered during a summertime cruise over the ESS in September 2005, were analyzed together with available data obtained during previous and subsequent expeditions to distinguish between possible methane sources of different origin, potential, and mobility. Using indirect evidence it was shown that one such source may be highly potential and extremely mobile shallow methane hydrates, whose stability zone is seabed permafrost-related and could be disturbed upon permafrost development, degradation, and thawing. Further immobilization of stored methane could cause abrupt methane release and unpredictable climatic consequences.
(Geophysical Research Abstracts, by Shakhova et al., PDF; cf this). I will refer to one other scientist before closing:
Paul Beckwith, a climatology and meteorology professor at the University of Ottawa, Canada, is an engineer and physicist who researches abrupt climate change in both the present day and in the paleoclimatology records of the deep past.

“It is my view that our climate system is in early stages of abrupt climate change that, unchecked, will lead to a temperature rise of 5 to 6 degrees Celsius within a decade or two,” Beckwith told me. “Obviously, such a large change in the climate system will have unprecedented effects on the health and well-being of every plant and animal on our planet.”
(The Methane Monster Roars). This year is still struggling to become the record year, by having the lowest Arctic sea ice extent of all other years.

That is, the lowest since the recent record was set in the year 2012 (Arctic Ice Extent: 2015 Struggles For First Place - 2).

V. Conclusion

The Obama Administration's allowing Arctic area drilling to find more of the poison that is threatening civilization was a deadly event, all their promises to cut poison GHG emissions notwithstanding.

Dr. Shakhova camp:



Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 47

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New meaning given to R & D
I missed the televised political competition to see which clown could persuade the most fools about the most irrelevant and non-scientific issues facing civilization as we know it.

Instead, I have been rendered aghast at how many scientists, activists, and bloggers (including me) missed some critical science concerning sea level rise change.

The gist of it is that sea level is both rising and falling, depending on location on the globe of the Earth.

In the scientific literature, ignoring those factors of sea level change has, for decades, caused strange contemplations of such things as "the European Problem" (see the video below).

The actual problem was that oceanographers and climate scientists were, for the most part, clueless about what was going on before them, in that case, hidden in very plain sight.

One effort to avoid being blind-sided by overly-specialized disciplines, which can create scientific myopia, is Sackler Colloquia:
The Fingerprints of Sea Level Change

This meeting was held March 31-April 2, 2011 at the AAAS Auditorium, in Washington, D.C. and was organized by Rita Colwell, Christopher Field, Jeffrey Shaman, and Susan Solomon

Meeting Overview

Climate science is addressing issues that require an increasingly interdisciplinary perspective, posing new challenges to scientists and to the organization and support of this science. Like other interdisciplinary activities, recognition and support of interdisciplinary climate science by the broader scientific community—including university and government administrators, journal editors and reviewers, and funding agencies—is advancing slowly. Often it is easier to recognize ideas that would represent major advances within a discipline, than ideas that would provide major advances but cut across multiple disciplinary foundations. This circumstance poses a challenge to interdisciplinary research and may slow interdisciplinary scientific advances. Such issues are of particular significance for studies of climate impacts, which may, for example, represent linkages between physical and social science, as well as feedbacks among physical, chemical and biological systems.

This Sackler Colloquium will provide a forum for addressing these issues. Specifically: How are high-quality interdisciplinary scientific ideas best recognized and nurtured in their nascent phase? How can we improve this recognition process so as to better support interdisciplinary climate science advances? The colloquium will examine the history of successful, innovative interdisciplinary scientific advances, drawing on experience not only in climate science but also in other fields. The purpose of the colloquium is to identify patterns in the evolutions of research in these areas. Are there common characteristics and/or principles that allowed critical efforts to succeed, thereby leading to significant advances? Did they begin as small concepts or as big, break-out ideas? How were these efforts nurtured, supported, or hindered? At what career stages were the primary researchers? How might future, novel interdisciplinary ideas in climate science be better identified?
(Comment on Youtube, emphasis added). Some of these efforts have led to a way of "finger printing"sea level change (e.g. Physics World).

This process is found in the scientific literature (e.g. Estimating The Sources of Global Sea Level Rise).

If sea level change is not considered by public works departments and port authorities, construction and/or improvement of sea ports will experience unexpected problems over time (see e.g. Peak Sea Level - 2, Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5).

And in the worse case scenario, Inhofeism (e.g. Inhofe's One Man Troofiness Crusade), people will be deceived into purchasing property in areas that should not be utilized for homes (e.g. Will This Float Your Boat - 3).

Have a good weekend anyway.

Professor Jerry Mitrovica, Harvard University:




Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States - 4

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Fig. 1@16:26 of Mitrovica video
I. Background

The subtitle for today's post could be:  "With friends like Oil-Qaeda, who needs enemies?"

I say that in the context of someone suffering from Stockholm Syndrome who might say: "without Oil-Qaeda we would not be using millions of barrels of oil each day, nor would oil be the lifeblood of our civilization, and I could not be proudly driving my Humvee around."

Never do they seem to grasp the fact that Oil-Qaeda is channelling Charles Manson, and being cheered for it even though Manson, like Stalin, has been condemned by freedom loving people.

Or have they?

This is another case that gives credence to the observational ability of the dark hearted one, who said:
"The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic."
(Joseph Stalin). That statement is beyond the grasp of many because there is a dearth of understanding about our animal / mammalian subconscious dynamics:
That's what Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin allegedly once said to U.S. ambassador Averill Harriman. And Stalin was an expert on the topic since his regime killed as many 43 million people. It turns out that the mustachioed murderer may have been expressing an acute insight into human psychology. Earlier this week, the Washington Post's always interesting Department of Human Behavior columnist Shankar Vedantam reported on the research of University of Oregon professor Paul Slovic who looked at how people respond to humanitarian tragedies. As Vedantam explains:
In a rational world, we should care twice as much about a tragedy affecting 100 people as about one affecting 50. We ought to care 80,000 times as much when a tragedy involves 4 million lives rather than 50. But Slovic has proved in experiments that this is not how the mind works.

When a tragedy claims many lives, we often care less than if a tragedy claims only a few lives. When there are many victims, we find it easier to look the other way.
...
Slovic has also shown that the amount of compassion humans feel can diminish as the number of victims increases: In an experiment in Israel, Slovic asked volunteers whether they would help raise $300,000 to save eight children who were dying of cancer. Those in another group were told only about one child with cancer and asked how much they were willing to donate to save the life of that child. Slovic found that people were willing to give more money to save one life than to save eight.

"When we trust our feelings in these cases, we are led down the path of turning our backs on the suffering of many people," Slovic said. "Even though we don't think of ourselves as uncaring, if we trust our moral intuition, it is not designed by evolution to respond accurately to these types of situations of mass tragedy."
(Reason, emphasis added). Another application of the concept is the reaction to the death of one lion, Cecil, compared with the relative indifference to the extinction of all lions currently being brought on by the use of fossil fuels.

We are currently living and dying within the boundaries of the Sixth Mass Extinction.

A mass extinction event brought on by human activity (Center for Biological Diversity).

An extinction event that is, culturally, a statistical trance seeming unattached to our subconscious emotional circuitry (Choose Your Trances Carefully, 2, 3).

Thus, I use the metaphor, epitome, or analogy of a real invasion of the U.S., which after a century of fear inducing propaganda by the powers that be,  should inure to the beneficial side of our ability to focus.

II. What Has Been Missing In This Series

In the first three posts of this series, I covered the notion of sea level rise (SLR), significantly directed toward its impact on the U.S. east coast sea ports (Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3).

That presentation is true, as applied to the U.S., yet that presentation is incomplete in a sense, because it is based on too much current "conventional bathtub science" (the establishment-science perspective).

Thus, in those three posts I did not present the full gravity of the situation (it is actually worse than I wrote, because of gravity, of all things).

That lack of completeness has been shored up in some subsequent posts (e.g. The Gravity of Sea Level Change, Peak Sea Level - 2).

The bottom line is that the situation for the U.S. is worse than I estimated, perhaps by about 15 percent.

The graphic, Fig. 1, depicts what would happen if Greenland lost enough ice sheet mass to cause an imaginary "conventional bathtub science" event of "1m global mean SLR."

The gist of it is that there is no real scenario that matches a global mean SLR of any level, because it is imaginary, unreal, and will never happen.

What is real, what will happen, is that sea level change (SLC) will take place any time the ice sheets of Greenland and/or Antarctica melt and/or calve ice into the sea.

That SLC will not be like what happens in a bathtub ("conventional bathtub science"), but rather will be dependent on the dynamics discussed in the video presented in The Gravity of Sea Level Change and Peak Sea Level - 2 (and the 2nd video below).

III. So What Does That Have To Do With An Invasion?

Basically, the invasion is coming sooner and more intensely to the U.S., because the gravitational factors increase the SLR specifically in the continental U.S. and a few other areas.

Those same gravitational factors will lower sea level in some places, while leaving SLR as it is now in yet other places around the globe (e.g. The Gravity of Sea Level Change, Peak Sea Level - 2).

IV. I Don't Like It - I Have To Change My SLR Model

Regular readers know that I developed an SLR projecting software model (The Evolution of Models, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10).

It was based on the "conventional bathtub science" method of fantasizing about the physically non-existent"global mean SLR," an imaginary concept.

My SLR model, in its current state, is still useful for some areas, such as the U.S., but it is not useful for areas that will be impacted by sea level fall (SLF), or areas that will have no SLC.

And it has a basic underestimate in it, because gravity will cause more rise than previously contemplated (about 15% more).

V. Conclusion

If you think I have work to do, think about the software models built long ago before the better software languages and compilers came around (see videos @ The Evolution of Models, 10).

And all of those models were developed before the notion of SLC came around a few years ago.

Hi ho hi ho its off to work I go.

BTW, the two videos below contrast the conventional bathtub science with the gravitational inclusion science.

The previous post in this series is here.

Conventional "global mean SLR" version (for the most part) that we all labored under:



All things considered SLC version:




Arctic Ice Extent: 2015 Struggles For First Place - 3

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Fig. 1 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (Aug. 10)
As shown in Fig. 1, it looks as though this year will not be the record year.

It started off as the lowest year, but lost momentum in early June, then looked like it would make a comeback in late July and early August.

I have been tracking the 2015 events in this series (Arctic Ice Extent: 2015 Struggles For First Place, 2),

The full information is available at the NSIDC.

The thing to watch is probably whether or not 2016 starts off as the lowest extent early one like this year did.

That could be a trend ... melting from the other side rather than the end of summer side.

We shall see.

I will continue to update the two graphs below each day, until the extent begins to grow again in mid September.

UPDATES: (click on a graph to enlarge)

As of (Aug. 9)

As of (Aug. 10)

The previous post in this series is here.

Significance of methane feedback loops in the Arctic:





The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 8

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Fig. 1 How much?
Background

The question, as I will show in this post, is still what the title of this post proclaims (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR?, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

The graphic at Fig. 1 is from a Professor Mitrovica presentation on sea level change covered in a post where I pointed out that either sea level rise (SLR) or sea level fall (SLF) are equally catastrophic to the sea ports of current civilization (Peak Sea Level - 2).

Most important though, is that both SLR and SLF, in terms of when they may take place, are dependent on how much acceleration is going to take place in global warming.

Whether SLR or SLF happens to your port of choice is dependent first on when ice sheet meltwater or calving glaciers flow or slide into the sea, and that being the biggie, depends on acceleration of melt or calving caused by global warming (which depends on CO2 levels, which depends on the very dependable use of fossil fuels by Petroleum Civilization).

In other words, you can depend on either SLR or SLF coming to a sea port near you because of global warming induced climate change (brought to you by Oil-Qaeda: Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment).

And, you can bet that either SLR or SLF will be ugly (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5)

Sea Level Change By Way of Gravity?

In a recent post (The Gravity of Sea Level Change) I explained how Professor Mitrovica points out that the gravity of ice sheets becomes an important factor when considering whether your local sea port will be ruined by SLR or by SLF.

Does it really matter which one does a sea port in?

It does in terms of sea ports being the organs of current civilization, but it doesn't matter in terms of some other things (e.g. air travel).

Remember that gravity does not cause the ice sheets to melt, it causes the meltwater to conform akin to how it does tides every day.

Which is Worse SLR or SLF?

For an example situation, remember that SLR will come inland to damage, disrupt, or destroy homes, roads, and other infrastructure (e.g. ports).

But to the contrary, SLF will merely render homes, roads, and other infrastructure to be further away from the coast and ocean (that too may cause some problems).

Also, in the case of SLF, there would be fewer refugees in the sense that homes, cities, and towns along the coast would not become submarine structures, in whole or in part, as they will in the case of SLR.

The point to remember, in all cases, is that without sea ports current global trade based civilization cannot survive as we know it.

Changes are required (leave fossil fuels in the ground or suffer much worse) that are based on savvy as to both SLR and SLF.

"When And How Soon" Is the Cat's Meow!

"How much?" (Fig. 1) and "what kind?" (SLR or SLF) are secondary issues if they seem so far off in the future that everyone says "who cares?"

That is why "how soon?" or "how fast?" are the issues to keep in mind.

President Obama recently said "There is such a thing as being too late when it comes to climate change."

A Sea Level Change Software Model

I mentioned a while back that I am modifying my SLR software so that it will become an SLC software model.
Fig. 2 Ice Sheet mass loss (10 yr doubling)

What that means is that it will calculate both SLR and SLF, along with the notion of when each one, hypothetically, will take place.

And where each one will take place.

The first order of business is to fuse the ice-mass-loss logic with the ice sheet melt logic, because they are intrinsically bound, even though they are not calculated in exactly the same way.

Notice that Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 have a similar look, because they are generated from the same data, but note that they do not have as much of a similar nature.

Fig. 3 SLR (compare with Fig. 2)
I mean that in the sense that one dynamic takes place as a direct result of global warming induced climate change (ice melt = mass loss = gravity loss).

While the other (SLR or SLF) takes place afterwards, when the Earth takes the meltwater or ice bergs to their final destination to then become fluids in either an SLR environment or an SLF environment.

Nevertheless, the core structure of the software program is focused on the central issue, which is "when will the ice sheets melt and how fast will they melt?"

Conclusion

In closing, I will give one more preview or peek into the "remodel" work done so far on the SLC modelling software:
Force of gravity calculations:
-----------------------------
G = 6.67384 × 10-11 m3 kg-1 s-2
F = G((m1 * m2) / d2)
-----------------------------
For Antarctica:

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 100
F = 5.81906

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 200
F = 1.45476

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 300
F = 0.646562

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 400
F = 0.363691

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 500
F = 0.232762

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 600
F = 0.16164

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 700
F = 0.118756

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 800
F = 0.0909228

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 900
F = 0.0718402

when m1 = 2.95283e+07; m2 = 2.95283e+07; d = 1000
F = 0.0581906

-----------------------------
For Greenland:

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 100
F = 0.0458119

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 200
F = 0.011453

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 300
F = 0.00509021

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 400
F = 0.00286324

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 500
F = 0.00183248

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 600
F = 0.00127255

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 700
F = 0.000934937

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 800
F = 0.000715811

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 900
F = 0.000565579

when m1 = 2.62e+06; m2 = 2.62e+06; d = 1000
F = 0.000458119
Notice that as "d" (distance) increases the force of gravity "F" weakens considerably (by a factor of 100: 0.0458119 ÷ 0.000458119 = 100).

Also, notice that Antarctica's "F" is about 127 times more powerful than Greenland's "F" is (Antarctica's "F" @ 100 km = 5.81906; Greenland's "F" @ 100 km = 0.0458119; thus, 5.81906 ÷ 0.0458119 = 127).

That is very important when calculating and contemplating whether or not a sea port will "go down" due to SLR, or instead will "go down" because of SLF (due to Antarctica ice sheet melt, or Greenland ice sheet melt, or both).

Anyway, the SLC modelling software does not have very far to go before it is fully remodelled (a week or less).

The previous post in this series is here.

Peak Sea Level - 3

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Fig. 1 Ice sheet & its ice shelf
I have been working on the SLC software, but I ran into a hard place surrounded by rocks, so I thought I would come up for air to rest.

And to do today's post before it becomes tomorrow.

I am putting this post in this series because I ran across an article by one of Professor Mitrovica's associates who worked on several peer review papers concerning gravity loss as ice sheets melt.

And its impact on sea level rise (SLR) and sea level fall (SLF).

I think I found a flaw in their hypothesis, albeit perhaps a minor one.

The specific assertion they make is that if the W. Antarctica ice sheet melts it will cause SLF near the coast of Antarctica, and outward from there.

So far, so good.

My concern was that they followed that up with "that will stabilize the ice sheet."

That will move the warm water away from contact with the bottom of the ice sheet was perhaps what they were thinking.

Their particular hypothesis is set forth in an article as follows:
"Scientists have long been concerned that the melting of the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet could become a self-reinforcing process, with the released water raising sea levels, leading to more melting, and so on.

Their concern stems from the fact that much of the land on which the ice rests is actually below sea level, forming a bowl sealed from the ocean by the immense weight of the ice above it. Should seawater infiltrate that bowl, scientists are worried it could float the ice at its edge, starting a runaway collapse that could raise the global sea level as much as 16 feet.

Now, however, Harvard researchers have a rare bit of what passes for good news on the global warming front: If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts, it will have the seemingly contradictory effect of lowering sea levels nearby, actually stabilizing the sheet."
(Harvard Gazette, emphasis added). I thought that might be a misunderstanding on the part of the person who wrote the article, because Natalya Gomez is quoted in the last sentence as also having said:
The gravity-sea level interaction “is not going to halt the collapse of the ice sheet, but it’s going to slow the rate of collapse,” Gomez said.
(ibid). I do also remember Professor Mitrovica saying, in the video in the previous post of
Fig. 2  Undermined ice shelf
this series, that he had good news--the drop in sea level around W. Antarctica would slow down or halt the ice sheet collapse.

But I don't think that is the case.

Notice Fig. 1, a typical graphic which depicts an ice sheet with its ice shelf extended over the ocean water near the coast (that graphic is taken from the second video below which shows "grounding drift").

Now notice Fig. 2 which is a modified version of Fig. 1, showing that if the sea drops in response to a loss of gravity as a result of loss of ice sheet mass, then the ice shelf is likely to lose its support and therefore break away from the ice sheet.

Since the ice shelf is a buttress against the ice sheet flow towards the sea, IMO the glaciers will speed up, not slow down or stop, once the ice shelf buttress is damaged and calved.

The two videos below are concerned with the area of W. Antarctica being discussed today.

Anyway, gotta get back to developing the SLC software now.

The previous post in this series is here.





Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 48

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Fig. 1 Grasping the SLC concept
I. Background

It is Friday, so let's rebel.

Scientifically.

Regular readers know that in recent Dredd Blog posts I have tended to consider the dynamics of sea level change (SLC).

Regular readers also know that SLC is composed of both sea level rise (SLR) as well as sea level fall (SLF).

If you want to read the latest developments in this ongoing narrative, a brief historical timeline of the cycle of recent SLC (past century) has been posted on Ecocosmology Blog (A Timeline of Endangered Sea Ports).

II. Today's Goal - Simplification

Today, in this post I want to show that the technical calculation of SLC at the location where you live and work is, among other things, a function of observing tides.

Tidal charts are quite accurate, because the Moon, the Sun, and the Earth are stable in terms of the gravitational, rotational, and orbital astrophysics involved in calculating tides.

There are many places to look up tidal times and tidal intensities that apply to your particular location (e.g. Salt Water Tides, NOAA - Tides), assuming that you are near enough to the ocean to care, or that you realize your country's future will be impacted by these dynamics.

High and low tides are caused by lunar and solar gravity "pulling" on the ocean (The Gravity of Sea Level Change).

Both of those gravities are very stable and reliable forces, even though they are constantly changing sea levels.

They are well understood, busily changing regional sea levels at any given time of day or night.

Since SLC is a similar, albeit slower dynamic, why reinvent the wheel?

III. Calculating The Impact of Global Warming Induced SLC

Let's continue with the goal of simplification (complications are discussed in Section IV below).

After we look up the relevant tide information (high, slack, low) for a specific date, time,
Fig. 2 SLC regional impact
and location, then we can add or subtract ongoing SLC values.

In this case I mean SLC values that are caused by ongoing global warming induced ice sheet melt and disintegration (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 8).

But first, we must consider the "moving parts" part of this "simple process."

One reason for that is because SLC is happening slowly, happening from two major sources, and the impact that each has on a given location varies with time.

Not only that, they both have an SLR and SLF impact that is constantly changing as the ice sheets melt, and once again, SLR or SLF and how much, depends on our location (lat. & long.) on the globe (The Agnotology of Sea Level Rise Via Ice Melt).

The location where I am may be having an SLF phenomenon at the same time your location may be having an SLR phenomenon, so we must know which situation (SLR or SLF?) apples to our location before we can apply Fig. 2 values as follows:
1) SLC (SLR or SLF) computation is the addition or subtraction of a percentage to, or from, a tidal value derived from a tidal chart.

2) The addition to, or the subtraction from, existing high or low tide values derived from the tidal chart, will assist by conforming the past realities to the new observations of SLC.

3) The range of percentages for SLR is 0% to 100% (Fig. 2).

4) The range of percentages for SLF is -0% to -100% (Fig. 2).
Now that we have done the easy part, let's consider the difficult part.

IV. Some Complications Can't Be Avoided

Fig. 3Greenland induced SLC
First, notice the SLC graphic depictions in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4.

They are individualized concepts isolated, for simplicity, to one particular ice sheet.

Fig. 3 depicts the Greenland ice sheet induced SLC, after all of its ice has melted or otherwise disintegrated to end up in the northern seas.

On the other hand, Fig. 4 depicts the Antarctica ice sheet induced SLC, after all of its
Fig. 4Antarctica induced SLC
ice has melted or otherwise disintegrated to end up in the southern seas.

Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 are fine and helpful for contemplating the barest nature of the two ice sheets, and for contemplating what SLC associated with them will look like in the future, however, they are both fanciful notions in other fundamental respects.

Still, those two depictions are fine for an elementary or preliminary contemplation of SLC.

The distortion involved with using them individually is that both of those ice sheets are melting at the same time, so their SLR and SLF impacts blend together (excluding them individually from anything other than elementary or preliminary contemplation).

Furthermore, each ice sheet impacts the other's SLR and SLF to some degree, and the degree of each ice sheet's impact on the other is constantly changing.

That constant change is due to the constant, but sometimes almost imperceptible, ice sheet melt and disintegration.

Take a look at two graphs here at the heading "A Sea Level Change Software Model".

Currently, as those graphs show, Greenland is the prime contributor of ice sheet melt and disintegration, however, Antarctica will overcome that to become the prime contributor of ice sheet melt and disintegration in the future.

V. Driving Public Works and Port Authority Officials Crazy

When port authority officials and public works departments know exactly what is going on, they move at the speed of snails (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 12).

When they contemplate a project, not knowing if the SLC they face is going to be SLR or SLF or both at different times, they will tend to move at the speed of snails going backwards.

VI. Conclusion

Civilization is facing a problem that is a shape-shifter, a liquid terminator, and something never before faced.

And, it is a problem that will only get worse with time (Sea Level Study, Princeton, Guardian, Vice News).

As President Obama said recently: "There is such a thing as too late when it comes to Climate Change."

Have a good weekend anyway.

Heart of Gold, by Neil Young (acoustic version):



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