| Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.  |
| Fig. 1Taiwan Typhoon Perspectives |
The warming commentariat, politicians, and ill-informed scientists make incorrect statements all the time.
It is the
Today then, I can catch up on pointing out some more World Ocean Database (WOD) information as I expose incorrect assumptions and "batshit crazy" statements of the uninformed (e.g. "I think the Earth is in a cooling trend" - House GOP leader).
| Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.  |
| Fig. 2 Ocean water temperatures |
At about 02:15 in this video (Climate Change @ White House), the spokesperson, Fran Ulmer, mentions some 2 dozen villages in Alaska having to be moved due to erosion a la sea level rise.
That is correct as to beach erosion taking place following the loss of ice shelves along the Arctic coast, and the loss of the erosion protection those ice shelves once provided against wind and waves (but, is not correct to the degree that it is said to be based on sea level rise around Alaska, because that is a myth).
| Image may be NSFW. Clik here to view.  |
| Fig. 3 Sea level change in the area of Taiwan |
For one thing, this is because of the melting ice sheet in Greenland.
But, it is also because of the melting land-based glaciers in Alaska ("if glaciers melt in Alaska, sea level around Alaska will drop" - Dr. Mitrovica, Harvard Professor (video below); Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 5, Proof of Concept - 3).
So, "what does that have to do with Taiwan typhoons?" (Fig. 1) you may be wondering.
For one thing, not only is there a lot of misinformation about ocean temperatures, especially as it relates to sea level rise and fall, but there are other misconceptions (Fig. 2, Fig. 3).
For example, regular readers know that I have been pointing out the lack of evidence for the thermal expansion hypothesis or myth (On Thermal Expansion & Thermal Contraction, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).
Using the WOD database would eradicate a lot of the misconceptions, such as the notion that hot ocean water caused or exacerbated the three typhoons that hit Taiwan in as many weeks.
Again, Fig. 2 shows that, all things considered, the temperature of the ocean is not the cause of thermal expansion induced sea level change of the magnitude that causes the sea level rise depicted in Fig. 3.
The WOD and PSMSL databases used to make those graphs tell the true story.
Below are analytical results from a module that counts the temperature change ups and downs (which have been recorded in the WOD database) in the listed WOD Zones around Taiwan.
First, the module determines the magnitude of those ups and those downs in each zone:
WOD Zone: 1212 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 103 upward & 109 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -2.0859
200-400m = 0.2265
400-600m = 0.7284
600-800m = 0.05648
800-1000m = -0.13203
1000-3000m = 0.45227
>3000m = 0.97503
Net change for 7 levels: 0.22075
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
(0.22075 ÷ 55): 0.00401364
WOD Zone: 1213 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 162 upward & 151 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -2.7191
200-400m = 0.2205
400-600m = 2.356
600-800m = 0.66678
800-1000m = 0.16356
1000-3000m = 1.66612
>3000m = -0.08253
Net change for 7 levels: 2.27133
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average change per year:
(2.27133 ÷ 55): 0.0412969
WOD Zone: 1214 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 120 upward & 106 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -1.5794
200-400m = 0.6386
400-600m = 1.7782
600-800m = 0.60483
800-1000m = -0.616
1000-3000m = 1.52995
>3000m = 0.03644
Net change for 7 levels: 2.39262
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
(2.39262 ÷ 40): 0.0598155
WOD Zone: 1112 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 130 upward & 129 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 0.8209
200-400m = 2.62725
400-600m = 3.80928
600-800m = 4.78892
800-1000m = 4.29675
1000-3000m = 0.63665
>3000m = -0.60177
Net change for 7 levels: 16.378
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
(16.378 ÷ 40): 0.40945
WOD Zone: 1113 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 160 upward & 165 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = -0.8171
200-400m = 6.5001
400-600m = 3.08613
600-800m = -0.99731
800-1000m = -1.01814
1000-3000m = -0.062
>3000m = 0.10022
Net change for 7 levels: 6.7919
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
(6.7919 ÷ 40): 0.169798
WOD Zone: 1114 (all figures in deg. C)
=======
Concerning temperature trends, there
were 140 upward & 155 downward trends.
Net changes per level were:
0-200m = 1.1934
200-400m = 3.8575
400-600m = 0.89494
600-800m = -0.25584
800-1000m = -0.35074
1000-3000m = -0.57875
>3000m = 0.09945
Net change for 7 levels: 4.85996
--------------------------------------
Years involved: 1976 -> 2016 (40 yrs)
Average change per year:
(4.85996 ÷ 40): 0.121499
Per-zone averages for 6 WOD Zones
(temperatures are in deg. C)
=======
Next, the module also determines the combined mean average magnitude of all those temperature ups and those downs into one result:
Combined results
(all zones listed above)
Concerning change trends, the average
was 135 upward & 135 downward trends.
Average changes per depth level were:
0-200m = -0.864533
200-400m = 2.34507
400-600m = 2.10883
600-800m = 0.810643
800-1000m = 0.390567
1000-3000m = 0.607373
>3000m = 0.0878067
Average change, all 7 levels: 0.78368
-------
Years involved: 1961 -> 2016 (55 yrs)
Average annual change per zone:
(0.78368 ÷ 55):
0.0142487 C per year
It is obvious that there is no valid reason to hypothesize that the warming in these zones, which amounts to 0.0142487 C per year, is the cause of sea level rise or sea level fall around Taiwan.
Likewise, it is not a valid reason to suppose the ocean water temperature rise is impacting typhoons this year any more than it has in the past decade (Fig. 2).
The warming commentariat is not warming up to this reality:
very-hot surface waters ... it’s likely that the waters at depth were also much warmer than usual ... Record-Hot Ocean ... the intensity of Typhoon Megi ... is [due to] increased ocean heat(... Record-Hot Ocean Waters ..., emphasis added). The WOD data do not bear this out, nor do they bear out thermal expansion as the MAJOR cause of sea level rise.
By far the greatest percentage of increase in air temperatures is taking place in the Arctic (Climate Change @ White House), and to a lesser extent in the Antarctic.
As Dr. Eric Rignot is fond of saying, yes, these waters are warming but I would not take a bath in 3 degrees C water.
Nevertheless, that ice cold water is warm enough to melt the ice sheets and ice shelves (3-4 deg. C and above), and the air in the Arctic is warming up enough to melt the ice sheets and glaciers there, but you still need a coat to keep warm there.
The ice sheet on Greenland has been melting since circa 1775 (Questionable "Scientific" Papers - 3).
Which shows that the global climate system (The Damaged Global Climate System, 2, 3, 4, 5) is sensitive enough to be damaged without the Earth having to turn into Venus (Environmental records shattered as climate change 'plays out before us').
It took only "25 years of industrial revolution" to begin to damage the global climate system long ago (before the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1778).
"Cold" sea water rise is just as deadly as "warm" sea water rise (Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion, Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4, 5).
Mixing disciplines is an antidote to myopia ... (BTW, NASA agrees with Mitrovica see quotes here).