The Evolution of Models - 9

Fig. 1 Well said

Regular readers know I finished version 1.0 of the Dredd Blog sea level rise (SLR) projection software (The Evolution of Models, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).

I came across a statement yesterday which made me glad about the design of that software.

Interestingly, the big boys with their million lines of code programs had to rewrite their software related to Greenland.

I am not privy to that code so I am not sure exactly what they will remodel.

They explained that "results of these studies are expected to improve predictions of the future of the entire Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise as researchers revamp their computer models of how the ice sheet reacts to a warming climate"(Hidden Movements of Greenland Ice Sheet, Runoff Revealed).

I made the Dredd Blog software data driven, so the software does not need to change as research data changes.

As the data improves the predictions will improve, but not only that, different scenarios can be projected in "what if" scenarios.

As an example of that, the three "what ifs" that Dr. James Hansen speaks about in one of his papers can be matched exactly (The Evolution of Models - 7).

Fig. 2Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Quite a few posts have pointed out that the Arctic is having an impact on Greenland which then impacts the U.S. East Coast with SLR (Series Posts, # "Sea Level Rise").

Today I am providing some review of just how radical the Arctic is being changed by global warming (see the videos below, and read Arctic Is Changing Radically, PDF).


Of the two factors, the Arctic in general, and Greenland in particular, Greenland is the focus as the source of SLR.

That said, we can tell to some degree how Greenland SLR will be impacted by the changes in the Arctic Ocean, which is why the two videos below contain very important information.

The oscillations of Greenland melt can fool us into false hope and complacency when its melt vacillates (see Fig. 2).

It is going to melt, so get over the false hope.

That is why we must also watch what happens in the Arctic Ocean, because it will help unlock north eastern Greenland drainage systems (Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79) Glacier, Northeast Greenland).

In Dredd Blog SLR software parlance, that is the back door to the zones called "inland 1", "inland 2", and "no-melt" (The Evolution of Models - 5).


Dr. D.G. Barber explains how radically the Arctic has changed during his career as a scientist there.

He also mentions that drilling rigs being sent there with the permission of the Obama Administration regulators (Oil-Qaeda & MOMCOM Conspire To Commit Depraved-Heart Murder) are in peril by old ice.

Most of the ice is now called "rotten ice."

The warming air and water convert old ice into rotten ice, then currents take that water toward Greenland (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR? - 4).

That impacts the ice shelf floating on the ocean in north Greenland, which weakens, and then like the Larsen B in Antarctica, no longer sufficiently resists glacier flow into the ocean.

Which is why it is a great threat to current civilization (Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2).

The previous post in this series is here.

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2011 Tedx Video featuring long-time Arctic scientist:

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NASA 2003-2012 Melt dynamics:

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