A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion

The Hansen et al. paper arguing that a vaunted 2°C temperature rise is dangerous is now open for comment at Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion, an open-access journal published by the European Geosciences Union (ACPD, "2°C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous", PDF).

Today, I will only address the sea level rise (SLR) aspects of the paper.

I am convinced that SLR is the prominent danger being created by the increase of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, and oceans, as a result of Petroleum Civilization's burning of fossil fuels (Petroleum Civilization: The Final Chapter (Confusing Life with Death), 2, 3, 4).

I mentioned the Hansen et al. paper on Wednesday, not having read it yet, but I kept that post limited to "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years," and "sea level rise is the big impact of human made climate change" (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13).

Today, with that paper in hand I want to address those issues with quotes directly from the paper itself, rather than from journalists.


The title of the paper ("2°C global warming is highly dangerous") indicates that the 16 co-authors feel that the assumption that we can live with a 2°C temperature rise is a dangerous and erroneous assumption.

We are about halfway to a 2°C temperature rise already, and the dangers presented already are killing millions of people and thousands of species of life on Earth (Oil-Qaeda: The Indictment).

Not to mention that we have already seriously damaged the Global Climate System, fresh water sources, farming soils, the oceans, and many other human habitat necessities.

Since the general, normalcy-biased press corps have not considered the serious dangers that SLR presents to current civilization, I have been doing so.

That is, I have been pointing out the dangers to the world's sea ports which an SLR of 1m / 3 ft. presents.

Since the world's ports are essential to current civilization many Dredd Blog posts have addressed the issue from many vantage points (e.g. Greenland & Antarctica Invade The United States, 2, 3; The 1% May Face The Wrath of Sea Level Rise First; Why The Military Can't Defend Against The Invasion; Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44; Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization, 2, 3, 4).

Those posts and others point out that Petroleum Civilization is based, in the main, on delivery of commodities, crude oil, coal, gas, foodstuffs, etc. via sea ports.

Sea ports were built at sea level decades ago, because that is where sea ports are built (at sea level).

When SLR takes place, those sea ports are thereby rendered below sea level.

Which presents very serious problems that, upon further analysis, are dangerous to current civilization.

And those are problems which threaten to convert current civilization into a civilization absent the sea trade essential to it (Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 44).

There is no realistic denial of that, instead, the resistance to comprehending it comes from pondering when it will happen (find "the law of when"here).


The paper indicates "sea levels rising as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years," so it is a departure from the IPCC position of 3 ft in the next 85 years.

If we apply linear arithmetic to the paper, it means 5 ft. per decade (50 ÷ 10 = 5), which would mean 1m / 3 ft. SLR in 6 years from now, or the year 2021 (5/10 = 3/x; x=6).

In non-linear arithmetic, i.e. a "doubling" or "an acceleration" of the annual rate, the first 10 year SLR would be less than the second 10 year rate, and so forth.

In contrast, my SLR calculation model indicates a 1m / 3 ft. SLR by 2031, or 16 yrs. from now (The Question Is: How Much Acceleration Is Involved In SLR - 5?).


What both my SLR calculation model and the Hansen et al. model leave out is surges in SLR.

Scientists call them "pulses" rather than surges, and they add a number and letter to further identify them.

I have been considering "pulse 1C" of about 8k years ago, which resulted in a 1m / 3ft. SLR in a few years or less (see NASA GISShere and here).

The "pulse 1C" was not directly related to climate, but rather related to some of the dynamics that take place when ice sheets melt in a warming climate.

Sometimes as in the case of pulse 1C, the meltwaters are dammed up either down under the surface of the ice sheet, on top of the ice sheet, or around the edges of the ice sheet.

We are talking about meltwater that is still over land, i.e., meltwater that has not reached the sea yet.

When the obstruction eventually gives way, there is a surge in SLR that is unrelated to either the linear or the accelerating melt that is ongoing.

There is a surge in SLR, without there having been a surge or pulse in warming or in CO₂ content.

The SLR in such a case is caused by a "dam" obstruction finally giving way, which allows the meltwater to then flow into the sea.

I have posted several times indicating that such obstructions currently take place on both the Greenland Ice Sheet and on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (The Surge: A Forgotten Aspect of Sea Level Rise, Weekend Rebel Science Excursion - 45).,


We can't calculate, by models, exactly when those types of obstructions will give way to thereby allow dammed up water to then surge, pulse, and flow to the sea.

So, instead, it is a matter of dealing with chaotic happen-stance, and therefore utilizing "better safe than sorry" risk management as the way to go (New Climate Catastrophe Policy: Triage - 13).


It is instructive to remember that SLR catastrophe involves only a tiny percentage of the ice sheets melting or otherwise finding a way to the sea:

To spark our interest, and bind ourselves to a sober view of this phenomenon which is called "The Biggest Story in the World" (according to a worldwide circulation news source), first consider the following quote from the video below:

2:43 - "One meter [of SLR] would be a global catastrophic event, 3 meters would remap the world as we know it?"

2:50 - "Yes, absolutely."

(emphasis added). This allows us to focus our attention on 1m / 3ft. of SLR, because it would be "a global catastrophic event."

The delicacy of the issue can be seen ... by realizing that only 1.14% of the global ice volume needs to melt to get us there (3 ft ÷ 263.5 ft. = 0.011385 = 1.14%).

The overall invader needs to use only 1.14% of its forces to accomplish the invasion.
...
If a small portion of one glacier (the Totten Glacier) in East Antarctica melts, or otherwise slides into the sea, the same will happen:

"How little it will take can also easily be seen by a statement from a scientist who is studying those locations closely and regularly:

'One of them, Totten glacier, holds the equivalent of seven metres of global sea level.' [a lower estimate is "at least" 3.3 metres here]

(Dr. Rignot East Antarctica glaciers, cf. Totten Glacier Melting). The percentage of that one glacier which needs to melt to cause 3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR is: 1÷7 = 0.142857143 = 14.3%."

(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization). That is a slim margin, because the Totten Glacier is showing signs of decomposition (Nature).
...
The NEGIS is 16% of the entire GIS, JI is 8%, while KG& HG at ~2% each.

These four entities make up 28% of the total ice in the GIS.

The entire GIS represents 21.49 ft. of SLR (Fig. 2), so 28% of that is (21.49 × .28) 6.02 feet.

Which means that only half of that amount (14%) is needed to reach "3 ft. / 1 m. of SLR."

(Why Sea Level Rise May Be The Greatest Threat To Civilization - 3). The threat to the infrastructure of current world civilization is far more imminent (assuming no nuclear war), than the extinction of the human race is.


One can only hope that the clueless minions currently herded by Oil-Qaeda will suddenly freak out and get down to business, calling for a world wide effort never before considered.

An effort that I and others would gladly rejoice in performing ... putting our energy into whatever it takes to LEAVE THE CIVILIZATION POISONING FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND !!

I would work like a slave to help with that, after Oil-Qaeda is brought to justice.